545. Burnham Beats Reform: Britain’s Next Prime Minister?
19 June 2026
Podcast
27 August 2025
Is Farage imitating Trump with his desire to deport 600,000 migrants from the UK? How is the media whipping up a toxic debate on immigration? Why is Labour still trying to ape Reform, rather than fighting back?
Join Rory and Alastair as they answer all these questions and more.
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Excerpt:
Rory Steward: Farage is now on 33% in the polls. A Telegraph article, yesterday, suggested the Tories which when I was in government was up at sort of 350 seats could be down to 22 seats in the next election. I mean almost almost disappear.
Given the first-past-the-pole system used in the UK to elect the members of the Lower House, a scenario where Reform UK win’s 33-35% of the votes but 60% of the seats in the lower house cannot be excluded.
Have a look at these numbers:
• In the 2019 GE, Labor got 32.1% of the popular vote and won 202 seats, which represents 31% of the seats in the lower house.
• In the 2024 GE, Labor got 33.7% of the popular vote, but won 411 seats, which represents 63% of the seats.
Or in other words, 1.6% increase of the popular vote translated in more than twice the seats in the Lower House
If PM Keir Starmer were proactive, he would introduce proportional representation as the mechanism to elect the members of the lower house. He has the votes in the Lower House to do so. The devolved parliaments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are based on proportional representation. Switzerland and Germany have voting systems in place based on proportional representation, allowing the electors to choose their representatives.
I would appreciate, if you and Rory could address this question in your next Q&A episode of The Rest is Politics.
Many thanks in advance!
André Brändli