Europe needs to get real on defence; Britain needs to get real on Europe
13 February 2025
Post
8 December 2019
Constituency | Held by | Tactical vote | |||||
ENGLISH CONSERVATIVE SEATS VULNERABLE TO TACTICAL VOTING | |||||||
* Beaconsfield | Con | Ind | Dominic Grieve defending seat he won as a Conservative | ||||
Cheadle | Con | Lib Dem | Lib Dems hope to regain seat they held from 2001 to 2015 | ||||
* Chelsea and Fulham | Con | Lib Dem | City "superwoman" Nicola Horlick standing for Lib Dems against anti-Brexit Greg Hands in strongly Remain seat | ||||
Cheltenham | Con | Lib Dem | Lib Dems hope to gain pro-Remain seat they lost in 2015 to Alex Chalk, a rare pro-People's Vote Tory | ||||
Chingford and Woodford Green | Con | Lab | Big swings to Lab in 2015 and 2017 have turned Iain Duncan Smith's once-safe seat into a marginal | ||||
Chipping Barnett | Con | Lab | Pro-Brexit Teresa Villiers defending 353 majority in seat that voted Remain | ||||
* Cities of London & Westminster | Con | Lib Dem | Former Lab MP Chuka Umunna standing as Lib Dem; Tory MP Mark Field stood down after Guildhall fracas | ||||
* Esher and Walton | Con | Lib Dem | Dominic Raab at risk in this pro-Remain seat despite defending 23,000 majority | ||||
Filton & Bradley Stoke | Con | Lab | Large student population in seat could help Labour overturn 4,000 Con majortiy | ||||
* Finchley and Golders Green | Con | Lib Dem | Jewish former Lab MP Lucia Berger standing as Lib Dem in GB's most Jewish seat | ||||
* Guildford | Con | Lib Dem | Lib Dem target also being contested by ex-Tory Anne Milton now standing as Independent | ||||
Hazel Grove | Con | Lib Dem | Former Lib Dem seat; 5,500 Con majority would be overturned if Labour supporters (9,000 last time) voted tactically | ||||
* Hendon | Con | Lab | Lib Dem challenge has faded in this Con-Lab marginal | ||||
* Herts SW | Con | Ind | David Gauke defending seat he won as Conservative | ||||
Lewes | Con | Lib Dem | Lib Dems hope to regain seat they held from 1997 to 2015, from Maria Caulfield, who resigned as Con Vice-Chair in protest against May's Brexit deal | ||||
Loughborough | Con | Lab | Local student vote could threaten 4,000 majority; former MP, Nicky Morgan, not standing | ||||
* Putney | Con | Lab | Lib Dem challenge has not materialised in this Con-Lab marginal | ||||
Richmond Park | Con | Lib Dem | Zac Goldsmith's 45 vote majority vulnerable to former local Lib Dem MP Sarah Olney | ||||
Rushcliffe | Con | Lab | Ken Clarke's 8,000 majority vulnerable; Con candidate Ruth Edwards pro-Brexit in Remain seat | ||||
South Cambridgeshire | Con | Lib Dem | Local former-Con MP Heidi Allen standing down; she now supports local Lib Dem | ||||
* Southport | Con | Lab | Three-way marginal that Lib Dems lost to Con in 2017 | ||||
St Albans | Con | Lib Dem | Strong Remain seat where Lib Dems have built strong local base | ||||
St Ives | Con | Lib Dem | Andrew George hopes to regain seat he held from 1997 to 2015 | ||||
Totnes | Con | Lib Dem | Sarah Wollaston standing as Lib Dem candidate in seat she held for nine years as a Conservative | ||||
Truro & Falmouth | Con | Lab | Lab has best chance in area that used to vote Lib Dem | ||||
Uxbridge | Con | Lab | Boris Johnson's 5,000 majority could be vulnerable to large Lab vote by Brunel University students | ||||
Wantage | Con | Lib Dem | Ed Vaizey, ex-minister and critic of Johnson, standing down in seat with growing Lib Dem challenge | ||||
Watford | Con | Lab | Labour has best chance of retaking the seat, despite Lib Dem challenge | ||||
* Wimbledon | Con | Lib Dem | Lib Dems now challenger in strongly Remain seat | ||||
Winchester | Con | Lib Dem | Lib Dems hope to regain seat they held from 1997 to 2010 | ||||
Wokingham | Con | Lib Dem | Arch-Brexiteer John Redwood faces Philip Lee, who switched from Con to Lib Dem, in this Remain seat | ||||
Wycombe | Con | Lab | Outside chance of upset in this once-safe Con seat held by ERG leader Steve Baker | ||||
York Outer | Con | Lab | Big student population voting tactically could put 8,000 Con majority at risk | ||||
ENGLISH AND WELSH LABOUR SEATS NOW THREE-WAY MARGINALS | |||||||
* Kensington | Lab | Lib Dem | Former Con MP Sam Gyimah standing as Lib Dem; Lab now third | ||||
* Portsmouth South | Lab | Lab | Three-way marginal held by Con, Lab and Lib Dem in recent years | ||||
Sheffield Hallam | Lab | Lib Dem | Controversial Lab MP Jaren O'Mara standing down after winning seat from Nick Clegg in 2017 | ||||
Ynys Mon | Lab | Lab | Three-way marginal between Lab, Con and Plaid Cymru | ||||
Aberdeen South | Con | SNP | A Labour seat until 2015, SNP now has best chance of overturning Con majority of almost 5,000 | ||||
Angus | Con | SNP | SNP needs to squeeze Labour vote to regain one of its former strongholds | ||||
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Con | SNP | Three-way contest in 2017, with Labour now in third place | ||||
Banff and Buchan | Con | SNP | SNP's Paul Robertson needs to squeeze both Lab and Lib Dem support to overturn Con majority of almost 4,000 | ||||
Dumfries and Galloway | Con | SNP | One-time Labour seat won by SNP in 2015 and Con in 2017. Lab now trailing; SNP now had best chance of gaining the seat | ||||
East Renfrewshire | Con | SNP | Three-way marginal; Lab until 2015, SNP now established as local challenger to Con | ||||
Gordon | Con | SNP | Lib Dems held Gordon for 32 years until 2015, but came fourth in 2017 | ||||
Moray | Con | SNP | In 2017, Con unseated Angus Robertson, SNP leader in House of Commons; SNP needs to overturn 4,000 majority | ||||
Ochil and South Perthshire | Con | SNP | SNP seeking to squeeze Lab vote, almost 11,000 last time, to regain seat they won in 2015 | ||||
Stirling | Con | SNP | Historically a Con-Lab marginal, SNP now has best chance of overturning Con majority of just 148 | ||||
LABOUR MARGINALS IN SCOTLAND | |||||||
East Lothian | Lab | SNP | Three-way marginal last time, SNP has best chance of stopping Con gaining seat it has never won before | ||||
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath | Lab | SNP | Gordon Brown's seat until SNP gained it in 2015 - and lost very narrowly back to Lab in 2017 | ||||
Midlothian | Lab | SNP | One-time safe Labour seat now a three-way marginal where split anti-Brexit vote could let in the Tories | ||||
11 minute(s) read
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The question is why is Jeremy Corbyn and Jo Swinson not leading the charge in terms of tactical voting?
They know that their refusal to do so and co-operate in general is making the possibility of a Tory majority almost inevitable yet they persist.
I can’t see how this can be considered good strategy in any way.
Maybe some argument in England but to encourage SNP in Scotland is crazy. The view up here is to diminish the SNP seats and not give Sturgeon any sort of mandate for another Independence Referendum.
Why on earth did Corbyn & Swinson gift Johnson a December election. They are culpable and both have now lost their jobs. Tactical voting would have worked, especially in the face of the Brexit Party’s removal of candidates in Tory marginals. If Johnson could work with Farage surely a Lib-Lab pact was tolerable . Hubris in the extreme. Let’s get a Labour leadership that can actually win!